Mainstreet 2026 Economic Forecast: Not Too Hot, Not Too Cold

“Not too hot, not too cold, just right,” is how Thomas Walstrum, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, described the S&P Global GDP forecast.

Walstrum spoke at a local event hosted by Mainstreet REALTORS® on January 14. He shared that, despite headlines, the economy in 2025 was actually boring — in a good way — and that he expects 2026 to be a decent year for the economy.

According to forecasts presented at the event, real GDP growth is expected to be about 2.2%, close to what economists consider normal long-term growth. “The economy is kind of settled in very close to its long-run growth rates,” Walstrum noted. This is good for Chicagoland, which he pointed out has a tightly linked economy with the overall U.S. In other words, when the U.S. economy is healthy so is the Chicago economy.

Walstrum shared that analysts see the Fed lowering interest rates in 2026 to a point where they are neither stimulating nor slowing the economy, meaning rates are expected to level out rather than rise sharply.

At the same time, the U.S. has a faster growth pace than the Chicago metro area, which includes the city and surrounding suburbs. Walstrum suspects there are two main reasons for this: “The two big ones are our industry mix and our climate.” The weather, particularly during the pandemic, pulled people south and west, a trend some local REALTORS® are now seeing reverse. “More people are moving back to Chicagoland after long periods of time away. This seems to be driven largely by high homeowners insurance costs in other states,” said Jason Hinsley, Designated Managing Broker, RE/MAX Metropolitan.

When it comes to employment growth over the next four quarters, Chicagoland is expected to continue growing, though at a slower, more sustainable pace.

“I’ve been talking about Chicago being slow growth but Chicago is actually a very strong economy in terms of both size and earnings,” Walstrum noted.

“Unemployment has been coming up but not in a recessionary way. It’s just slightly cool, and still a very healthy labor market,” he added.

Against the broader economic backdrop, local REALTORS® also shared their reflections on 2025 and predictions for 2026.

“As I reflect on 2025, what stood out was that the market was still fast-paced and sellers continued to have the advantage, even though buyers were more cautious than in past years,” said Michelle Mauntel-MacDonald, REALTOR®, Keller Williams Premiere Properties.

“If rates happen to dip, I believe the market may pick up quickly and prices will rise again. I also understand that the decisions the government makes affect the market. It will be interesting to see what the next year brings,” noted Stacy Beeson, REALTOR®, Coldwell Banker Real Estate Group, Shorewood.

Income per capita in both the U.S. and the Chicago metro area is expected to grow by 3.2%.

“Chicago is a very productive place, with lots of people earning lots of money. And S&P doesn’t see that advantage for Chicago going away,” Walstrum said.

Before the housing bubble, the Chicago metro area’s home prices were above median home prices in the U.S. “And then it started to lag… home prices in other big cities in the country have grown a lot faster than Chicago’s home prices over the last 15 years. And what that means, according to this data, is that Chicago is actually now one of the most affordable large cities in the country,” Walstrum explained.

This relative affordability gives buyers more room to be selective and helps sellers attract serious, qualified buyers.

“One of the big advantages, at least from an economist’s perspective, of being a slower-growth place is that slower-growth places tend to have slower growth in the cost of living,” he concluded.

When viewed alongside housing data, Chicagoland stands out as a compelling place to purchase a home and live.

Taken together, the economic outlook and local market insights point to a year defined more by stability than surprises. With the broader economy growing at a steady pace, interest rates expected to level out rather than spike and Chicagoland maintaining its relative affordability compared to other major metro areas, buyers and sellers alike have room to make thoughtful, informed decisions. While the market remains competitive, especially for well-priced homes, today’s conditions offer more balance than in recent years, giving buyers time to be selective and sellers confidence that serious demand is still there as 2026 approaches.